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The evolution and use of discovery process models at the U. S. Geological Survey

Lawrence J. Drew and John H. Schuenemeyer
The evolution and use of discovery process models at the U. S. Geological Survey
AAPG Bulletin (March 1993) 77 (3): 467-478


The development and the application of discovery process models have evolved to the point that these models now can be used to estimate the number of oil and gas fields remaining to be discovered in partially explored regions, and the rates at which fields will be discovered in the future. The fundamental data used to calibrate these models are taken from the systematic order that exists in the historical pattern of discovery in such regions (exploration plays, basins, provinces). The characteristic patterns of discovery vary from region to region, and ordinarily exhibit diminishing rates of return to wildcat drilling as a function of field size. The number of fields remaining to be discovered in each field-size class is estimated by a two stage procedure: direct nonlinear estimation of fields in the portion of the size distribution not truncated by economic factors (larger fields) and indirect estimating by using a relative frequency factor for the field-size classes in the economically truncated portion of the distribution (smaller fields). The forecast of the future rates of discovery then considers the total range of field sizes, on the basis of wildcat wells drilled, by applying the discovery process model to both segments of the estimated size distribution. The application of this procedure is illustrated for a variety of onshore and offshore exploration plays from different geologic environments that have different economic conditions (size truncation points).

ISSN: 0149-1423
EISSN: 1558-9153
Coden: AABUD2
Serial Title: AAPG Bulletin
Serial Volume: 77
Serial Issue: 3
Title: The evolution and use of discovery process models at the U. S. Geological Survey
Affiliation: U. S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, United States
Pages: 467-478
Published: 199303
Text Language: English
Publisher: American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa, OK, United States
Accession Number: 1993-004576
Categories: Economic geology, geology of energy sources
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 5 tables, sketch maps
N18°00'00" - N30°04'00", W98°00'00" - W80°30'00"
Secondary Affiliation: University of Delaware, USA, United States
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2019, American Geosciences Institute.
Update Code: 1993
Program Name: USGSOPNon-USGS publications with USGS authors
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