ABSTRACT

Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo (McMC) techniques are increasingly being used in geophysical estimation of hydrogeologic processes due to their ability to produce multiple estimates that enable comprehensive assessment of uncertainty. Standard McMC sampling methods can, however, become computationally intractable for spatially distributed, high-dimensional problems. We have developed a novel basis-constrained Bayesian McMC difference inversion framework for time-lapse geophysical imaging. The strategy parameterizes the Bayesian inversion model space in terms of sparse, hydrologic-process-tuned bases, leading to dimensionality reduction while accounting for the physics of the target hydrologic process. We evaluate the algorithm on cross-borehole electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) field data acquired during a heat-tracer experiment. We validate the ERT-estimated temperatures with direct temperature measurements at two locations on the ERT plane. We also perform the inversions using the conventional smoothness-constrained inversion (SCI). Our approach estimates the heat plumes without excessive smoothing in contrast with the SCI thermograms. We capture most of the validation temperatures within the 90% confidence interval of the mean. Accounting for the physics of the target process allows the detection of small temperature changes that are undetectable by the SCI. Performing the inversion in the reduced-dimensional model space results in significant gains in computational cost.

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