ABSTRACT

Predicting well production in unconventional oil and gas settings is challenging due to the combined influence of engineering, geologic, and geophysical inputs on well productivity. We have developed a machine-learning workflow that incorporates geophysical and geologic data, as well as engineering completion parameters, into a model for predicting well production. The study area is in southwest Texas in the lower Eagle Ford Group. We make use of a time-series method known as functional principal component analysis to summarize the well-production time series. Next, we use random forests, a machine-learning regression technique, in combination with our summarized well data to predict the full time series of well production. The inputs to this model are geologic, geophysical, and engineering data. We are then able to predict the well-production time series, with 65%–76% accuracy. This method incorporates disparate data types into a robust, predictive model that predicts well production in unconventional resources.

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