Effects of pressure and fluid saturation can have the same degree of impact on seismic amplitudes and differential traveltimes in the reservoir interval; thus, they are often inseparable by analysis of a single stacked seismic data set. In such cases, time-lapse AVO analysis offers an opportunity to discriminate between the two effects. We quantify the uncertainty in estimations to utilize information about pressure- and saturation-related changes in reservoir modeling and simulation. One way of analyzing uncertainties is to formulate the problem in a Bayesian framework. Here, the solution of the problem will be represented by a probability density function (PDF), providing estimations of uncertainties as well as direct estimations of the properties.

A stochastic model for estimation of pressure and saturation changes from time-lapse seismic AVO data is investigated within a Bayesian framework. Well-known rock physical relationships are used to set up a prior stochastic model. PP reflection coefficient differences are used to establish a likelihood model for linking reservoir variables and time-lapse seismic data. The methodology incorporates correlation between different variables of the model as well as spatial dependencies for each of the variables. In addition, information about possible bottlenecks causing large uncertainties in the estimations can be identified through sensitivity analysis of the system. The method has been tested on 1D synthetic data and on field time-lapse seismic AVO data from the Gullfaks Field in the North Sea.

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