Abstract

Likely death and sickness rates caused by a toxic contaminant release with a resistance to sickness that is age dependent are explored. As many as 10 different sicknesses can be allowed for each released contaminant. Transport of portions of released contaminant by airborne or waterborne methods leads to different contaminant levels and therefore, different death and sickness rates. Gender-specific sicknesses (e.g., prostate cancer or ovarian cancer) can also be included, allowing broad usage of the quantitative procedure described. The influence of uncertainty in parameters relating to either the age dependence model for sickness or death rates, the age distribution model of the population, or the spill and transport of toxic contaminant can easily be handled using a risking program such as Crystal Ball™, in conjunction with the basic death and sickness rate program. Several numerical illustrations show how to assess likely death and sickness rates under these influences.

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