In this article, we present an overview of the research project NGA-East, Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA), and summarize the key methodology and products. The project was tasked with developing a new ground motion characterization (GMC) model for CENA. The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 median ground motion models (GMMs) for peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA, PGV) and response spectral ordinates for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The NGA-East GMMs are applicable to horizontal components of ground motions on very hard rock, for the moment magnitude range of 4.0–8.2, and distances of up to 1500 km. The aleatory standard deviations of GMMs are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) applications (ergodic standard deviation). In addition, adjustment factors are provided for source depth and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast Region. During the course of the project, several innovative technologies were developed and implemented to increase the transparency and repeatability of the GMC building process. This involved expanding on a set of candidate median GMMs to define and capture an appropriate range of epistemic uncertainty in ground motions. We also developed a new approach for modeling the aleatory variability that was completely independent of the median GMMs. The development made extensive use of the CENA database but also borrowed data from other parts of the world when relevant and led to an integrated suite of models. Through this repeatable process, epistemic uncertainty could be quantified more objectively than before, relying less on expert opinion. The NGA-East project went through a comprehensive Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 peer review process before its release.
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Research Article|
July 01, 2021
NGA-East Ground-Motion Characterization model part I: Summary of products and model development
Christine A Goulet, EERI;
1
Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USAChristine A Goulet, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA. Email: [email protected]
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Yousef Bozorgnia, EERI;
Yousef Bozorgnia, EERI
2
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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Nicolas Kuehn;
Nicolas Kuehn
2
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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Linda Al Atik;
Linda Al Atik
3
Linda Al Atik Consulting, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Robert R Youngs, EERI;
Robert R Youngs, EERI
4
Wood Environment & Infrastructure Solutions, Inc., Oakland, CA, USA
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Robert W Graves, EERI;
Robert W Graves, EERI
5
U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, CA, USA
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Gail M Atkinson, EERI
Gail M Atkinson, EERI
6
Department of Earth Sciences, Western University, London, ON, Canada
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1
Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Yousef Bozorgnia, EERI
2
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Nicolas Kuehn
2
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Linda Al Atik
3
Linda Al Atik Consulting, San Francisco, CA, USA
Robert R Youngs, EERI
4
Wood Environment & Infrastructure Solutions, Inc., Oakland, CA, USA
Robert W Graves, EERI
5
U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, CA, USA
Gail M Atkinson, EERI
6
Department of Earth Sciences, Western University, London, ON, CanadaChristine A Goulet, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), University of Southern California, 3651 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA. Email: [email protected]
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Received:
21 Jul 2020
Accepted:
30 Apr 2021
First Online:
17 Nov 2021
Online ISSN: 1944-8201
Print ISSN: 8755-2930
- Funder(s):U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
- Award Id(s): Cooperative Agreement
- Award Id(s):
- Funder(s):Electric Power Research Institute
- Award Id(s): Cooperative Agreement
- Award Id(s):
- Funder(s):U.S. Geological Survey
- Award Id(s): Cooperative Agreement
- Award Id(s):
© The Author(s) 2021
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Spectra (2021) 37 (1_suppl): 1231–1282.
Article history
Received:
21 Jul 2020
Accepted:
30 Apr 2021
First Online:
17 Nov 2021
Citation
Christine A Goulet, Yousef Bozorgnia, Nicolas Kuehn, Linda Al Atik, Robert R Youngs, Robert W Graves, Gail M Atkinson; NGA-East Ground-Motion Characterization model part I: Summary of products and model development. Earthquake Spectra 2021;; 37 (1_suppl): 1231–1282. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211018723
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- acceleration
- earthquake prediction
- earthquakes
- elastic waves
- faults
- geologic hazards
- ground motion
- Gulf Coastal Plain
- magnitude
- natural hazards
- North America
- peak ground acceleration
- risk assessment
- seismic moment
- seismic risk
- seismic waves
- velocity
- visualization
- peak ground velocity
- Next Generation Attenuation
- NGA-East
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