Vulnerability functions often rely on data from expert opinion, post-earthquake investigations, or analytical simulations. Combining the information can be particularly challenging. In this paper, a Bayesian statistical framework is presented to combining disparate information. The framework is illustrated through application to earthquake mortality data obtained from the 2005 Pakistan earthquake and from PAGER. Three different models are tested including an exponential, a combination of Bernoulli and exponential and Bernoulli and gamma fit to model respectively zero and non-zero mortality rates. A novel Bayesian model for the Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma probability densities is introduced. It is found that the exponential distribution represents the zero casualties very poorly. The Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma models capture the data for both the zero and non-zero mortality rates. It is also shown that the Bernoulli-gamma model fits the 2005 Pakistan data the best and has uncertainties that are smaller than either the ones from the 2005 Pakistan data or the PAGER data.
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Research Article|
August 01, 2017
Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates
Hae-Young Noh;
Hae-Young Noh
a
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
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Anne Kiremidjian, M. EERI;
Anne Kiremidjian, M. EERI
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
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Luis Ceferino;
Luis Ceferino
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
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Emily So, M. EERI
Emily So, M. EERI
c
Department of Architecture, Fellow at Magdalen College, Cambridge University, UK
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Hae-Young Noh
a
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Anne Kiremidjian, M. EERI
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
Luis Ceferino
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
Emily So, M. EERI
c
Department of Architecture, Fellow at Magdalen College, Cambridge University, UK
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Received:
12 Aug 2016
Accepted:
10 Mar 2017
First Online:
01 Jun 2020
Online ISSN: 1944-8201
Print ISSN: 8755-2930
© 2017 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Spectra (2017) 33 (3): 1173–1189.
Article history
Received:
12 Aug 2016
Accepted:
10 Mar 2017
First Online:
01 Jun 2020
Citation
Hae-Young Noh, Anne Kiremidjian, Luis Ceferino, Emily So; Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates. Earthquake Spectra 2017;; 33 (3): 1173–1189. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/081216eqs133m
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- Asia
- Bayesian analysis
- building stone
- buildings
- clastic sediments
- concrete
- construction materials
- damage
- earthquakes
- engineering properties
- Indian Peninsula
- Jammu and Kashmir
- Kashmir
- Kashmir earthquake 2005
- mud
- numerical analysis
- numerical models
- probability
- sediments
- statistical analysis
- uncertainty
- casualties
- Bernoulli models
Latitude & Longitude
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