This study presents a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Central America, which is used to evaluate the indicators of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The exposure, vulnerability, and hazard components of the model were established using a uniform methodology for all the countries. Earthquake risk is expressed according to three indicators: mortality (A-1), population affected (B-1), and economic losses (C-1). Exposure results indicate that over 9.1 million structures (with an economic value of US$635 billion) are exposed to seismic hazard in the region. The risk results indicate an average annual human loss of 0.7 fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants, an average number of 35 people affected per 100,000 inhabitants, and an average annual economic loss of US$990 million. This represents 0.43% and 0.16% of the regional gross domestic product (GDP) and total replacement value, respectively. Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador present the highest risk, contributing with 75% of the absolute economic losses and 84% of the average annual fatalities in the region.
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Research Article|
February 01, 2022
Toward a uniform earthquake loss model across Central America
Alejandro Calderón, EERI;
1
Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, ItalyAlejandro Calderón, Global Earthquake Model, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia 27100, Italy. Email: alejandro.calderon@globalquakemodel.org
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Vitor Silva;
Vitor Silva
1
Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy2
Faculty of Science and Technology, University Fernando Pessoa, Porto, Portugal
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Matilde Avilés;
Matilde Avilés
3
Facultad de Tecnología de la Construcción, Universidad de Nicaragua, Managua, Nicaragua
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Rosalín Méndez;
Rosalín Méndez
4
Laboratorio de Investigación en Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de Panamá, Panama City, Panama
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Rolando Castillo;
Rolando Castillo
5
Laboratorio Nacional de Materiales y Modelos Estructurales, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica
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José Carlos Gil;
José Carlos Gil
6
Universidad Mariano Gálvez de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Guatemala
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Manuel Alfredo López
Manuel Alfredo López
7
Universidad de El Salvador, San Salvador, El Salvador
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Earthquake Spectra (2022) 38 (1): 178–199.
Article history
received:
21 Sep 2019
accepted:
15 Aug 2021
first online:
10 Feb 2022
Citation
Alejandro Calderón, Vitor Silva, Matilde Avilés, Rosalín Méndez, Rolando Castillo, José Carlos Gil, Manuel Alfredo López; Toward a uniform earthquake loss model across Central America. Earthquake Spectra 2022;; 38 (1): 178–199. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211043894
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