In risk assessment, the exposure component describes the elements exposed to the natural hazards and susceptible to damage or loss, while the vulnerability component defines the likelihood to incur damage or loss conditional on a given level of hazard intensity. In this article, we propose a novel adaptive approach to exposure modeling which exploits Dirichlet-Multinomial Bayesian updating to implement the incremental assimilation of sparse in situ survey data into probabilistic models described by compositions (proportions). This methodology is complemented by the introduction of a custom spatial aggregation support based on variable-resolution Central Voronoidal Tessellations. The proposed methodology allows for a more consistent integration of empirical observations, typically from engineering surveys, into large-scale models that can also efficiently exploit expert-elicited knowledge. The resulting models are described in a probabilistic framework, and as such allow for a more thorough analysis of the underlying uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied and discussed in five countries in Central Asia.
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Research Article|
October 01, 2020
Variable resolution probabilistic modeling of residential exposure and vulnerability for risk applications
Massimiliano Pittore;
1
Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, GermanyMassimiliano Pittore, EURAC Research, Bolzano, Italy. Emails: massimiliano.pittore@gfz-potsdam.de, massimiliano.pittore@eurac.edu
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Michael Haas;
Michael Haas
1
Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
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Vitor Silva, M.EERI
Vitor Silva, M.EERI
2
Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, Italy
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1
Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Michael Haas
1
Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Vitor Silva, M.EERI
2
Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, ItalyMassimiliano Pittore, EURAC Research, Bolzano, Italy. Emails: massimiliano.pittore@gfz-potsdam.de, massimiliano.pittore@eurac.edu
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Received:
01 Jul 2020
Accepted:
02 Jul 2020
First Online:
01 Dec 2020
Online Issn: 1944-8201
Print Issn: 8755-2930
© The Author(s) 2020
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Spectra (2020) 36 (1_suppl): 321–344.
Article history
Received:
01 Jul 2020
Accepted:
02 Jul 2020
First Online:
01 Dec 2020
Citation
Massimiliano Pittore, Michael Haas, Vitor Silva; Variable resolution probabilistic modeling of residential exposure and vulnerability for risk applications. Earthquake Spectra 2020;; 36 (1_suppl): 321–344. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020951582
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