The lack of empirical data regarding earthquake damage or losses has propelled the development of dozens of analytical methodologies for the derivation of fragility and vulnerability functions. Each method will naturally have its strengths and weaknesses, which will consequently affect the associated risk estimates. With the purpose of sharing knowledge on vulnerability modeling, identifying shortcomings in the existing methods, and recommending improvements to the current practice, a group of vulnerability experts met in Pavia (Italy) in April 2017. Critical topics related to the selection of ground motion records, modeling of complex real structures through simplified approaches, propagation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, and validation of vulnerability results were discussed, and suggestions were proposed to improve the reliability and accuracy in vulnerability modeling.
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November 01, 2019
Current Challenges and Future Trends in Analytical Fragility and Vulnerability Modeling
Vitor Silva;
a
Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, Italy;vitor.silva@globalquakemodel.org (V. S.)
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Sinan Akkar;
Sinan Akkar
b
Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey
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Paolo Bazzurro;
Paolo Bazzurro
d
University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia, Italy
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José Miguel Castro;
José Miguel Castro
e
University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
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Matjaz Dolsek;
Matjaz Dolsek
g
University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
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Carmine Galasso;
Carmine Galasso
h
University College of London, London, United Kingdom
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Sergio Lagomarsino;
Sergio Lagomarsino
i
University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
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Ricardo Monteiro;
Ricardo Monteiro
d
University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia, Italy
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Daniele Perrone;
Daniele Perrone
d
University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia, Italy
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Kyriazis Pitilakis;
Kyriazis Pitilakis
j
University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
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Dimitrios Vamvatsikos
Dimitrios Vamvatsikos
k
National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece
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Earthquake Spectra (2019) 35 (4): 1927–1952.
Article history
received:
24 Apr 2018
accepted:
28 Feb 2019
first online:
08 Jun 2020
Citation
Vitor Silva, Sinan Akkar, Jack Baker, Paolo Bazzurro, José Miguel Castro, Helen Crowley, Matjaz Dolsek, Carmine Galasso, Sergio Lagomarsino, Ricardo Monteiro, Daniele Perrone, Kyriazis Pitilakis, Dimitrios Vamvatsikos; Current Challenges and Future Trends in Analytical Fragility and Vulnerability Modeling. Earthquake Spectra 2019;; 35 (4): 1927–1952. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/042418EQS101O
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