Common responses to induced seismicity are based on control of the anthropogenic activity causing the earthquakes, such as fluid injection or withdrawal, in order to limit either the magnitudes of the events or the level of ground motion to within established thresholds. An alternative risk-mitigation option is seismic retrofitting of the more vulnerable buildings potentially exposed to the ground shaking to reduce the risk to acceptable levels. Optimal mitigation strategies may combine both production control and structural strengthening, for which a probabilistic risk model is required that can estimate the change in hazard caused by production or injection variations and the changes in fragility resulting from structural interventions. Such a risk model has been developed for the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. The framework for this risk model to inform decision making regarding mitigation strategies can be adapted to other cases of anthropogenically induced seismicity.
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Research Article|
May 01, 2019
A Probabilistic Model to Evaluate Options for Mitigating Induced Seismic Risk
Jan van Elk;
Jan van Elk
a
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. (NAM), Schepersmaat 2, 9405 TA Assen, the Netherlands
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Stephen J. Bourne;
Stephen J. Bourne
b
Shell Global Solutions International B.V., Grasweg 31, 1031HW Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Steve J. Oates;
Steve J. Oates
c
Shell Global Solutions International B.V., Kessler Park 1, 2288 GS Rijswijk, the Netherlands
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Julian J. Bommer, M. EERI;
d
Civil & Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United KingdomEmail: j.bommer@imperial.ac.uk
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Rui Pinho, M. EERI;
Rui Pinho, M. EERI
e
Civil Engineering & Architecture, University of Pavia, via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy
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Helen Crowley, M. EERI
Helen Crowley, M. EERI
f
Seismic Risk Consultant, Pavia, Italy
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Jan van Elk
a
Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. (NAM), Schepersmaat 2, 9405 TA Assen, the Netherlands
Stephen J. Bourne
b
Shell Global Solutions International B.V., Grasweg 31, 1031HW Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Steve J. Oates
c
Shell Global Solutions International B.V., Kessler Park 1, 2288 GS Rijswijk, the Netherlandsd
Civil & Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
Rui Pinho, M. EERI
e
Civil Engineering & Architecture, University of Pavia, via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy
Helen Crowley, M. EERI
f
Seismic Risk Consultant, Pavia, ItalyEmail: j.bommer@imperial.ac.uk
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Received:
09 May 2018
Accepted:
09 Nov 2018
First Online:
08 Jun 2020
Online ISSN: 1944-8201
Print ISSN: 8755-2930
© 2019 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Spectra (2019) 35 (2): 537–564.
Article history
Received:
09 May 2018
Accepted:
09 Nov 2018
First Online:
08 Jun 2020
Citation
Jan van Elk, Stephen J. Bourne, Steve J. Oates, Julian J. Bommer, Rui Pinho, Helen Crowley; A Probabilistic Model to Evaluate Options for Mitigating Induced Seismic Risk. Earthquake Spectra 2019;; 35 (2): 537–564. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/050918EQS118M
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- aftershocks
- attenuation
- Bayesian analysis
- body waves
- building codes
- compaction
- computer programs
- data acquisition
- data processing
- earthquake prediction
- earthquakes
- elastic waves
- epicenters
- Europe
- faults
- fluid injection
- ground motion
- induced earthquakes
- mitigation
- monitoring
- Monte Carlo analysis
- natural gas
- Netherlands
- numerical models
- oil and gas fields
- P-waves
- Paleozoic
- Permian
- petroleum
- physical models
- probability
- production
- regulations
- reservoir rocks
- risk assessment
- Rotliegendes
- seismic networks
- seismic waves
- seismicity
- shaking tables
- simulation
- soils
- spectra
- spectral analysis
- statistical analysis
- strong motion
- subsidence
- velocity
- wave amplification
- Western Europe
- Groningen Field
- Roswinkel Field
- Loppersum Netherlands
- Huizinge earthquake 2012
- Bergermeer Field
Latitude & Longitude
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