This paper presents the application of a rigorous probabilistic framework that estimates the number, severity, and distribution of casualties over a region. A brief summary of the model is included in this paper. The application is for casualties resulting from a Mw 8.8 earthquake scenario occurring on the sub-duction fault along the coastline of Lima, Peru. The case study demonstrates an application of the casualty model, including the procedures for acquiring the required information, the selection of model parameters, and a step-by-step explanation of the model-solving algorithms. The model provides an estimate of the joint probability distribution of multiseverity casualties, including spatial and across-severity correlations. This paper also shows how the model can be useful for (1) estimating 90th-percentile casualties, (2) identifying unsafe communities and structural typologies, and (3) providing evidence to support hospital collaboration policies across different districts to increase the patient treatment reliability. Additionally, the results demonstrate that empirical fatality prediction methodologies can underestimate fatality rates in countries with scarce and outdated fatality data.
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Research Article|
November 01, 2018
Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake Scenario in Lima, Peru
Luis Ceferino;
a)
John A. Blume Earthquake Earthquake Engineering Center, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University, 439 Panama Mall, Stanford, CA 94305Email: ceferino@stanford.edu
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Anne Kiremidjian;
Anne Kiremidjian
a)
John A. Blume Earthquake Earthquake Engineering Center, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University, 439 Panama Mall, Stanford, CA 94305
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Gregory Deierlein
Gregory Deierlein
a)
John A. Blume Earthquake Earthquake Engineering Center, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University, 439 Panama Mall, Stanford, CA 94305
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Earthquake Spectra (2018) 34 (4): 1739–1761.
Article history
received:
06 Aug 2017
accepted:
23 Apr 2018
first online:
09 Jun 2020
Citation
Luis Ceferino, Anne Kiremidjian, Gregory Deierlein; Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake Scenario in Lima, Peru. Earthquake Spectra 2018;; 34 (4): 1739–1761. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/080617EQS154M
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- acceleration
- buildings
- concrete
- construction materials
- damage
- earthquakes
- elastic waves
- engineering geology
- great earthquakes
- ground motion
- Lima Peru
- peak ground acceleration
- Peru
- plate tectonics
- probability
- rupture
- seismic intensity
- seismic waves
- soils
- South America
- statistical analysis
- strong motion
- subduction
- velocity
- casualties
- masonry
- Lima earthquake 1746
- megathrust earthquakes
Latitude & Longitude
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