Vulnerability functions often rely on data from expert opinion, post-earthquake investigations, or analytical simulations. Combining the information can be particularly challenging. In this paper, a Bayesian statistical framework is presented to combining disparate information. The framework is illustrated through application to earthquake mortality data obtained from the 2005 Pakistan earthquake and from PAGER. Three different models are tested including an exponential, a combination of Bernoulli and exponential and Bernoulli and gamma fit to model respectively zero and non-zero mortality rates. A novel Bayesian model for the Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma probability densities is introduced. It is found that the exponential distribution represents the zero casualties very poorly. The Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma models capture the data for both the zero and non-zero mortality rates. It is also shown that the Bernoulli-gamma model fits the 2005 Pakistan data the best and has uncertainties that are smaller than either the ones from the 2005 Pakistan data or the PAGER data.
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
Research Article|
August 01, 2017
Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates
Hae-Young Noh;
Hae-Young Noh
a
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Search for other works by this author on:
Anne Kiremidjian, M. EERI;
Anne Kiremidjian, M. EERI
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
Search for other works by this author on:
Luis Ceferino;
Luis Ceferino
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
Search for other works by this author on:
Emily So, M. EERI
Emily So, M. EERI
c
Department of Architecture, Fellow at Magdalen College, Cambridge University, UK
Search for other works by this author on:
Earthquake Spectra (2017) 33 (3): 1173–1189.
Article history
received:
12 Aug 2016
accepted:
10 Mar 2017
first online:
01 Jun 2020
Citation
Hae-Young Noh, Anne Kiremidjian, Luis Ceferino, Emily So; Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates. Earthquake Spectra 2017;; 33 (3): 1173–1189. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/081216eqs133m
Download citation file:
You could not be signed in. Please check your email address / username and password and try again.
Email alerts
Index Terms/Descriptors
- Asia
- Bayesian analysis
- building stone
- buildings
- clastic sediments
- concrete
- construction materials
- damage
- earthquakes
- engineering properties
- Indian Peninsula
- Jammu and Kashmir
- Kashmir
- Kashmir earthquake 2005
- mud
- numerical analysis
- numerical models
- probability
- sediments
- statistical analysis
- uncertainty
- casualties
- Bernoulli models
Latitude & Longitude
Citing articles via
Related Articles
Time-Dependent Seismic Fragilities of Older and Newly Designed Multi-Frame Reinforced Concrete Box-Girder Bridges in California
Earthquake Spectra
Framework for Developing Fragility and Consequence Models for Local Personal Risk
Earthquake Spectra
A Framework and Case Study for Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of Incrementally Expanding Buildings
Earthquake Spectra
D – Goldschmidt Abstracts 2013
Mineralogical Magazine
Related Book Content
The Kashmir Basin fault and its influence on fluvial flooding in the Kashmir Basin, NW Himalaya
Geoscience for the Public Good and Global Development: Toward a Sustainable Future
Historical earthquakes in Srinagar, Kashmir: Clues from the Shiva Temple at Pandrethan
Ancient Earthquakes
Quaternary glacial chronology and neotectonics in the Himalaya of northern Pakistan
Tectonics of the western Himalayas
Antique stone quarries in Turkey: a case study on tuffs in the Temple of Apollon Smintheus
Sustainable Use of Traditional Geomaterials in Construction Practice
The role of the petrophysical characteristics on the durability and conservation of some porous calcarenites from Southern Italy
Sustainable Use of Traditional Geomaterials in Construction Practice
Chapter 6 Collapsible Soils in the UK
Geological Hazards in the UK: Their Occurrence, Monitoring and Mitigation – Engineering Group Working Party Report