Ground motion maps and observation records of liquefaction sites from ten historical earthquakes are used to develop predictive equations for the regional occurrence of liquefaction. Liquefaction occurrence ratio is determined for different geomorphological conditions and intervals of causative shaking intensity obtained from the observation data. Probability regression analysis of these data, based on a cumulative normal distribution, is then used to develop equations for estimating probability of liquefaction for different geomorphological conditions given shaking intensity. Utility of the model is demonstrated for a hypothetical Tonankai-Nankai earthquake to create an estimated liquefaction potential map having 250-m grid-cells. The approach shows promise for rapid online generation of liquefaction maps following an earthquake.

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