A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.
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Research Article|
May 01, 2015
A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa
Julian J. Bommer, M. EERI;
a
Civil & Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, UK
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Kevin J. Coppersmith, M. EERI;
Kevin J. Coppersmith, M. EERI
b
Coppersmith Consulting Inc., Walnut Creek, CA
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Ryan T. Coppersmith;
Ryan T. Coppersmith
b
Coppersmith Consulting Inc., Walnut Creek, CA
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Kathryn L. Hanson, M. EERI;
Kathryn L. Hanson, M. EERI
c
Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Inc., Oakland, CA
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Azangi Mangongolo;
Azangi Mangongolo
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
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Johann Neveling;
Johann Neveling
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
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Ellen M. Rathje, M. EERI;
Ellen M. Rathje, M. EERI
e
Dept. of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering, University of Texas, Austin, TX
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Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, M. EERI;
Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, M. EERI
f
Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
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Frank Scherbaum;
Frank Scherbaum
g
Inst. of Earth & Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, Germany
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Refilwe Shelembe;
Refilwe Shelembe
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
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Peter J. Stafford, M. EERI;
Peter J. Stafford, M. EERI
a
Civil & Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, UK
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Fleur O. Strasser
Fleur O. Strasser
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
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Kevin J. Coppersmith, M. EERI
b
Coppersmith Consulting Inc., Walnut Creek, CA
Ryan T. Coppersmith
b
Coppersmith Consulting Inc., Walnut Creek, CA
Kathryn L. Hanson, M. EERI
c
Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Inc., Oakland, CA
Azangi Mangongolo
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
Johann Neveling
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
Ellen M. Rathje, M. EERI
e
Dept. of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering, University of Texas, Austin, TX
Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, M. EERI
f
Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
Frank Scherbaum
g
Inst. of Earth & Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, Germany
Refilwe Shelembe
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
Peter J. Stafford, M. EERI
a
Civil & Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, UK
Fleur O. Strasser
d
Council for Geoscience, Pretoria, South Africa
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Received:
06 Mar 2013
Accepted:
30 Nov 2013
First Online:
01 Jun 2020
Online ISSN: 1944-8201
Print ISSN: 8755-2930
© 2015 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Earthquake Spectra (2015) 31 (2): 661–698.
Article history
Received:
06 Mar 2013
Accepted:
30 Nov 2013
First Online:
01 Jun 2020
Citation
Julian J. Bommer, Kevin J. Coppersmith, Ryan T. Coppersmith, Kathryn L. Hanson, Azangi Mangongolo, Johann Neveling, Ellen M. Rathje, Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, Frank Scherbaum, Refilwe Shelembe, Peter J. Stafford, Fleur O. Strasser; A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa. Earthquake Spectra 2015;; 31 (2): 661–698. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/060913EQS145M
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- Africa
- Al-26
- alkaline earth metals
- aluminum
- amplitude
- Be-10
- bedrock
- beryllium
- body waves
- boreholes
- Cape fold belt
- Cenozoic
- data bases
- data processing
- earthquake prediction
- earthquakes
- Eastern Cape Province South Africa
- elastic waves
- engineering properties
- erosion features
- faults
- Fourier analysis
- geologic hazards
- geophysical methods
- geophysical profiles
- geophysical surveys
- ground motion
- instruments
- intensity
- isotopes
- magnitude
- marine terraces
- metals
- natural hazards
- Neogene
- neotectonics
- networks
- normal faults
- nuclear facilities
- optically stimulated luminescence
- passive margins
- pediments
- plate tectonics
- Pliocene
- probability
- Quaternary
- radioactive isotopes
- recurrence interval
- risk assessment
- S-waves
- sedimentary rocks
- seismic waves
- seismicity
- seismographs
- shore features
- siliciclastics
- South Africa
- Southern Africa
- spectral analysis
- statistical analysis
- strike-slip faults
- surveys
- tectonics
- Tertiary
- uplifts
- velocity
- waveforms
- Peninsula Formation
- Skurweberg Formation
- Cedarberg Formation
- Goudini Formation
- Ceres earthquake 1969
- Kango Fault
- Coega Fault
- Thyspunt
- Kouga Fault
- Ceres Fault
- Baviaanskloof Fault
Latitude & Longitude
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