Current seismic design practice often relies on the use of the uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS), which implicitly includes motions from multiple earthquake sources and envelops possible spectra, yet does not represent a single event. Seismic hazard analyses at the site of a major Mississippi River crossing near St. Louis, Missouri, showed bimodal seismic hazard dominated by small, nearby earthquakes at short periods and large, distant earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone at long periods. UHRS motions resulted in large seismic demands and predictions of pervasive liquefaction that were inconsistent with historical and geologic records. UHRS-compatible conditional mean spectra (CMS) were developed to bridge deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations, and used to evaluate liquefaction, lateral spreading, and settlement potential. The computed response was consistent with the historical and geologic record. CMSs offer hazard-compatible alternatives to the UHRS and result in seismic demand consistent with historical and geologic evidence.
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Research Article|
February 01, 2015
Conditional Mean Spectra in Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Evaluation for a Major River Crossing in the Central United States
Youssef M. A. Hashash, M. EERI
;
Youssef M. A. Hashash, M. EERI
a)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, 2230c Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 N. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801
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Norman A. Abrahamson, M. EERI
;
Norman A. Abrahamson, M. EERI
b)
Pacific Gas & Electric Company, 245 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105
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Scott M. Olson, M. EERI
;
Scott M. Olson, M. EERI
a)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, 2230c Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 N. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801
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Steve Hague
;
Steve Hague
c)
HNTB Corporation, 715 Kirk Drive, Kansas City, MO 64105
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Byungmin Kim, M. EERI
Byungmin Kim, M. EERI
d)
Risk Management Solutions, Inc, 7575 Gateway Blvd., Newark, CA 94560
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Earthquake Spectra (2015) 31 (1): 47–69.
Article history
received:
31 Mar 2013
accepted:
27 Aug 2013
first online:
04 Jun 2020
Citation
Youssef M. A. Hashash, Norman A. Abrahamson, Scott M. Olson, Steve Hague, Byungmin Kim; Conditional Mean Spectra in Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Evaluation for a Major River Crossing in the Central United States. Earthquake Spectra 2015;; 31 (1): 47–69. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/033113EQS085M
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- acceleration
- Arkansas
- attenuation
- bridges
- earthquakes
- faults
- geologic hazards
- ground motion
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- liquefaction
- magnitude
- mechanical properties
- Mississippi River
- Missouri
- natural hazards
- New Madrid region
- peak ground acceleration
- physical properties
- pore pressure
- pore water
- prediction
- probability
- risk assessment
- Saint Louis County Missouri
- Saint Louis Missouri
- seismicity
- settling
- spectra
- spectral analysis
- statistical analysis
- strike-slip faults
- Tennessee
- time series analysis
- United States
Latitude & Longitude
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