Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is widely used to estimate the ground motion intensity that should be considered when assessing a structure's performance. Disaggregation of PSHA is often used to identify representative ground motions in terms of magnitude and distance for structural analysis. Forward directivity–induced velocity pulses, which may occur in near-fault (or near-source) motions, are known to cause relatively severe elastic and inelastic response in structures of certain periods. Here, the principles of PSHA are extended to incorporate the possible occurrence of a velocity pulse in a near-fault ground motion. For each magnitude and site-source geometry, the probability of occurrence of a pulse is considered along with the probability distribution of the pulse period given that a pulse does occur. A near-source “narrowband” attenuation law modification to predict ground motion spectral acceleration (Sa) amplitude that takes advantage of this additional pulse period information is utilized. Further, disaggregation results provide the probability that a given level of ground motion intensity is caused by a pulse-like ground motion, as well as the conditional probability distribution of the pulse period associated with that ground motion. These extensions improve the accuracy of PSHA for sites located near faults, as well as provide a rational basis for selecting appropriate near-fault ground motions to be used in the dynamic analyses of a structure.

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