Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted to estimate both ground motion and fault displacement hazards at the potential geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study is believed to be the largest and most comprehensive analyses ever conducted for ground-shaking hazard and is a first-of-a-kind assessment of probabilistic fault displacement hazard. The major emphasis of the study was on the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Six teams of three experts performed seismic source and fault displacement evaluations, and seven individual experts provided ground motion evaluations. State-of-the-practice expert elicitation processes involving structured workshops, consensus identification of parameters and issues to be evaluated, common sharing of data and information, and open exchanges about the basis for preliminary interpretations were implemented. Ground-shaking hazard was computed for a hypothetical rock outcrop at -300 m, the depth of the potential waste emplacement drifts, at the designated design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-3 and 10-4. The fault displacement hazard was calculated at the design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-4 and 10-5.
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Research Article|
February 01, 2001
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses for Ground Motions and Fault Displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada
Earthquake Spectra (2001) 17 (1): 113–151.
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first online:
01 Jun 2020
Citation
Yucca Mountain PSHA Project Members; Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses for Ground Motions and Fault Displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Earthquake Spectra 2001;; 17 (1): 113–151. doi: https://doi.org/10.1193/1.1586169
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Index Terms/Descriptors
- acceleration
- active faults
- attenuation
- Basin and Range Province
- calderas
- California
- Cenozoic
- crust
- Death Valley Fault
- deformation
- displacements
- earthquakes
- epicenters
- extension
- faults
- geodesy
- geologic hazards
- ground motion
- lateral faults
- left-lateral faults
- magnitude
- Miocene
- monitoring
- natural hazards
- Neogene
- neotectonics
- Nevada
- normal faults
- North America
- numerical models
- Nye County Nevada
- peak ground acceleration
- probability
- Quaternary
- radioactive waste
- recurrence interval
- regulations
- risk assessment
- rupture
- seismic intensity
- seismic risk
- seismicity
- simulation
- statistical analysis
- stress drops
- strike-slip faults
- tectonics
- Tertiary
- trenching
- uncertainty
- underground installations
- underground storage
- United States
- volcanic features
- Walker Lane
- waste disposal
- Yucca Mountain
- Bow Ridge Fault
- Solitario Canyon Fault
- Furnace Creek Fault
- Nevada National Security Site
Latitude & Longitude
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