Abstract The late Pleistocene in the Dead Sea Basin is one of the most studied and well-dated under-filled lacustrine deposits in the world and therefore provides a unique opportunity for analyzing individual controlling factors by applying field data into a forward model. The analysis of the depositional history of basins commonly shows a nonunique solution caused by the interdependence of the depositional controlling factors. This can be demonstrated by modeling stratigraphic successions that were constructed using different sedimentary and tectonic values but visually look the same. Here, we used the computer forward simulation SEDPAK to reconstruct the stratigraphic sequences observed in the field using multiple data sets that were established for these deposits. By applying a high-resolution lake level curve, subsidence history, and depositional rates in the offshore sections, we reduced the uncertainties of the model that match outcrop observations. We were then able to test the sensitivity of the simulated cross section to changes in individual parameters and evaluate the contribution of each of them to the result. This allows checking for errors and locations where more data are needed. It also provides insights into the distribution and character of potential hydrocarbon reservoir facies.

An interest in eustasy, after a long dormancy, has been revived by the development of seismic stratigraphy. Eustatic events signal their occurrence through the synchronous creation or loss of worldwide accommodation of the space available for sediment fill. Such events can only be recognized if this signal is large enough, and of worldwide extent. The signal is dependent on reliable stratigraphic markers spaced sufficiently closely in time to resolve the sea-level events. The amplitude cannot be determined. Evidence for eustatic events are widely separated synchronous sedimentary sequences and the unconformities which bound these features. To unequivocally interpret the stratigraphic record, one must be able to disentangle the effects of changing tectonics, eustasy, and sediment supply. In practice it is impossible to accomplish a complete calibration of seismic sequences, therefore it will always be a matter of interpretation. However, a wide range of geological characteristics place limits on tectonism and eustasy. This allows the application of a family of reasonable tectonic and eustatic models to explain basin history. In most instances, models within the family are similar enough to reproduce the stratigraphic record at the level of resolution produced by seismic sections. In many cases this is due to the fact that tectonics, eustasy, and sediment supply are linked, rather than being independent of each other. Hence, although absolute values of bathymetry and tectonics may never be determined with precision, models can generate complex basinal sequences with high fidelity using plausible inputs. Thus assumptions heaped on assumptions work. Examples used to demonstrate the above paradigm are from the Mesozoic and Tertiary of the Bahamas, the Gulf Coast of the United States, and the South Carolina Coast; and the Permian of the Midland basin of Texas.