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Mapping and assessing volcanic and flood hazards and risks, with emphasis on lahars, in Arequipa, Peru

By
R.D. Vargas Franco
R.D. Vargas Franco
RDVGeoconsulting, Enschede, the Netherlands
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J.-C. Thouret
J.-C. Thouret
PRES Clermont, Université Blaise Pascal, UMR 6524 CNRS Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement-R163, 5 rue Kessler, 63038 Clermont-Ferrand cedex, France
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G. Delaite
G. Delaite
PRES Clermont, Université Blaise Pascal, UMR 6524 CNRS Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement-R163, 5 rue Kessler, 63038 Clermont-Ferrand cedex, France
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C. van Westen
C. van Westen
International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation, P.O. Box 6 7500AA, Enschede, the Netherlands
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M.F. Sheridan
M.F. Sheridan
Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, Buffalo, New York 14260, USA
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C. Siebe
C. Siebe
Departamento de Vulcanología, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria CP, 04510 México D.F., Mexico
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J. Mariño
J. Mariño
Instituto Geológico Minero y Metalúrgico, Av. Canadá, San Borja 1470, Lima 41, Peru
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T. Souriot
T. Souriot
PRES Clermont, Université Blaise Pascal, UMR 6524 CNRS Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement-R163, 5 rue Kessler, 63038 Clermont-Ferrand cedex, France
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A. Stinton
A. Stinton
Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, Buffalo, New York 14260, USA
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Published:
April 01, 2010

Studies of the type, extent, and volume of Holocene pyroclastic and lahar deposits have concluded that future eruptions of El Misti volcano, even if moderate in magnitude, will pose a serious threat to the city of Arequipa, Peru. After describing the most probable volcanic scenarios at El Misti, this paper concentrates on lahar and flood risk assessment. Scenarios were derived with the help of the simulation codes LAHARZ and TITAN2D. The lahar risk assessment varies significantly depending on the method selected. LAHARZ simulations indicate that a considerable part of the urban areas and infrastructure could be severely affected. Losses due to impacts inflicted by lahars in three selected parts of the urban area are estimated to be in the order of 40–100 million U.S. dollars. In the case of TITAN2D, the resulting lahar-affected area only includes infrastructure assets mainly located along the Río Chili.

Results indicate that although simulation codes could be useful tools in the analysis of lahar hazard scenarios, it is still premature to regard them as accurate sources of information for actual decision making related to risk mitigation at the local level. More research is required to further adjust simulation codes and refine risk scenarios. The first priority for the mitigation of the volcanic hazard faced by the city of Arequipa should be improvement of the risk map (a hazard map has already been drawn and is under scrutiny) and the preparation of contingency plans.

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Contents

GSA Special Papers

Stratigraphy and Geology of Volcanic Areas

Gianluca Groppelli
Gianluca Groppelli
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto per la Dinamica dei Processi Ambientali, Sezione di Milano, Milano, Italy
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Lothar Viereck-Goette
Lothar Viereck-Goette
Institut für Geowissenschaften, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, Jena, Germany
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Geological Society of America
Volume
464
ISBN print:
9780813724645
Publication date:
April 01, 2010

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