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The Pearl River Delta with its network system and estuarine bays is unique and one of the most complicated large-scale estuarine systems in China. In this paper, a long-term morphodynamic model is developed to simulate the long-term morphological evolution of the Pearl River Delta. The concepts of long-term model calibration and verification are discussed. The paleo–estuary bay topography formed in the last interglacial period is reconstructed and serves as an initial and boundary condition of this model with time steps of 100 yr. Events of shorter duration are ignored. The driving forces and control factors considered in the long-term delta...

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