Stochastic modelling of flow sequences for improved prediction of fluvial flood hazards
Published:December 02, 2019
Sandhya Patidar, Deonie Allen, Rick Haynes, Heather Haynes, 2019. "Stochastic modelling of flow sequences for improved prediction of fluvial flood hazards", River to Reservoir: Geoscience to Engineering, P. W. M. Corbett, A. Owen, A. J. Hartley, S. Pla-Pueyo, D. Barreto, C. Hackney, S. J. Kape
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The availability of historical streamflow data of the desired length is often limited and, in these situations, the ability to synthetically generate statistically significant datasets becomes important. We previously developed a highly efficient stochastic modelling approach for the synthetic generation of daily streamflow sequences using the systematic combination of a hidden Markov model with the generalized Pareto distribution (the HMM-GP model). Daily streamflow sequences provide limited information on various significant small duration flooding events exceeding the peak over threshold values, but these are averaged out in the daily datasets. These small duration intense flooding events are often capable of causing significant damage and are important in conducting thorough flood risk management and flood risk assessment studies. This paper presents upgrades to our HMM-GP stochastic modelling approach and examines its efficiency in simulating streamflow at a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The potential of the HMM-GP model in simulating a synthetic 15-minute streamflow series is investigated by comparing various statistical characteristics (e.g. percentiles, the probability density distribution and the autocorrelation function) of the observed streamflow records with 100 synthetically simulated streamflow time series. The proposed modelling schematics are robustly validated across case studies in four UK rivers (the Don, Nith, Dee and Tweed).
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River to Reservoir: Geoscience to Engineering
CONTAINS OPEN ACCESS
This volume brings together a number of papers from two workshops with the theme, ‘Rain, Rivers, Reservoirs’, which considered the dynamic changes to river systems as part of natural processes, particularly changing climatic conditions. Bringing researchers from two different locations to Brazil and the UK allowed scientists to contribute to and promote, ‘debate on current research…on how the planet works and how we can live sustainably on it’. This volume features a series of papers on the geoscience of modern and ancient rivers from across the world (Brazil, United States, Spain, Argentina, Canada, India and the UK), their evolution through time, their management, their deposits and their engineering, with both subsurface aquifers/hydrocarbon reservoirs (of Carboniferous, Triassic and Cretaceous age) and surface reservoirs considered.