Global-scale abrupt climate events and black swans: an ice-core-derived palaeoclimate perspective from Earth’s highest mountains
Lonnie G. Thompson, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Mary E. Davis, Stacy E. Porter, Donald V. Kenny, Ping-Nan Lin, 2018. "Global-scale abrupt climate events and black swans: an ice-core-derived palaeoclimate perspective from Earth’s highest mountains", The Himalayan Cryosphere: Past and Present, N.C. Pant, R. Ravindra, D. Srivastava, L.G. Thompson
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High-elevation tropical glaciers provide records of past climate from which current changes can be assessed. Comparisons among three ice-core records from tropical mountains on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean reveal how climatic events are linked through large-scale processes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Two distinctive trans-Pacific events in the mid-fourteenth and late-eighteenth centuries are distinguished by elevated aerosol concentrations in cores from the Peruvian Andes and the Tibetan Himalaya. Today aerosol sources for these areas are enhanced by droughts accompanying El Niños. In both locations, large-scale atmospheric circulation supports aerosol transport from likely source regions. Oxygen isotopic ratios from the ice cores are significantly linked with tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures, especially in the NIÑO3.4 region. The arid periods in the fourteenth and eighteenth centuries reflect droughts that were possibly connected to strong and/or persistent El Niño conditions and Intertropical Convergence Zone migration. These ‘black swans’ are contemporaneous with climate-related population disruptions. Recent warming, particularly at high elevations, is posing a threat to tropical glaciers, many of which have been retreating at unprecedented rates over the last several thousand years. The diminishing ice in these alpine regions endangers water resources for populations in South Asia and South America.
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The Himalaya mountains contain not only one of the largest concentrations of ice outside the polar regions, but contribute to the hydrological requirements of large populations spread over seven nations. The exceptionally high elevations of this low-latitude cryosphere presents a natural laboratory and archives to study climate–tectonics interactions as well as regional v. global climate influences. The existing base-level data on the Himalayan cryosphere are highly variable. Several climate fluctuations occurred during the late Quaternary (MIS1–MIS5, especially the last c. 100 ka), which led to the evolution of the Himalayan landscape. Detailed studies of these archives, along with those of the present cryosphere and related hydrosphere, are essential for understanding the controls on present and future hydrology of the glacial-fed mountain rivers.
This volume, a follow-up of the XII International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Science, Goa (A SCAR symposium), provides new data from locales spread over the entire Himalaya region and from Tibet. It provides a glimpse of the late Quaternary cryosphere, as well as a discussion in the last section on sustainability in the context of geohazard mitigations as well as the hydrological budget.