Evaluating a volcanic ash ground-loading hazard at Gunung Ciremai, West Java, Indonesia using PF3D
A. N. Bear-Crozier, N. Kartadinata, A. Heriwaseso, O. Nielsen, 2017. "Evaluating a volcanic ash ground-loading hazard at Gunung Ciremai, West Java, Indonesia using PF3D", Geohazards in Indonesia: Earth Science for Disaster Risk Reduction, P. R. Cummins, I. Meilano
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Volcanic ash represents a serious hazard to communities living in the vicinity of active volcanoes in developing countries such as Indonesia. Geoscience Australia (GA), the Australia–Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR) and Badan Geologi (Indonesia’s Geological Agency) have adapted an existing open-source volcanic ash dispersion model for use in Indonesia. An application example is presented here for Gunung Ciremai in West Java, Indonesia. A stochastic set of eruption events was simulated using eruptive parameters within the acceptable range of possible future events for this volcano: granulometry and a meteorological dataset that represents the complete range of possible wind conditions expected during seasonal wind conditions for the region. Implications for nearby communities of dry v. rainy season conditions on volcanic ash hazard were investigated. Communities on the western side of Gunung Ciremai were highly susceptible to volcanic ash ground loading regardless of the season: communities on the eastern side, however, were more susceptible during the rainy season months. This is attributed to prevailing wind conditions during the rainy season that include a strong easterly component. Disaster risk reduction workers can use hazard maps like those produced here to inform decision-making, and to focus mitigation efforts on communities most at risk.
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With dense urban populations located in one of the most active tectonic belts in the world, Indonesia is a hotspot for natural hazard risk. During the twentieth century, Indonesia had limited means to keep natural disaster fatalities from rising commensurately with the explosive growth in population. This situation is changing rapidly, however, with major political and economic advances over the past two decades having led to substantial investments in seismic and geodetic infrastructure. The potential for advances in Earth science to reduce natural disaster fatalities in Indonesia has never been greater.
This Special Publication documents some of the recent advances made by Earth scientists that contribute towards a better understanding of geological hazards in Indonesia.