Sensitivity analysis for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in the Aceh Fault Segment, Indonesia
Amalfi Omang, Phil R. Cummins, David Robinson, Sri Hidayati, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in the Aceh Fault Segment, Indonesia", Geohazards in Indonesia: Earth Science for Disaster Risk Reduction, P. R. Cummins, I. Meilano
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Slip rate, locking width and ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) selection are important in seismic hazard analysis because they are used to estimate earthquake recurrence, to limit the maximum magnitude in an earthquake source and to estimate earthquake ground shaking. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to fault slip rates, fault locking width and the selection of GMPEs for the Aceh Fault Segment, Indonesia. The hazard level differences vary considerably owing to changes in these three parameters. Therefore, careful consideration is needed in applying PSHA in areas of high fault parameter uncertainty.
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With dense urban populations located in one of the most active tectonic belts in the world, Indonesia is a hotspot for natural hazard risk. During the twentieth century, Indonesia had limited means to keep natural disaster fatalities from rising commensurately with the explosive growth in population. This situation is changing rapidly, however, with major political and economic advances over the past two decades having led to substantial investments in seismic and geodetic infrastructure. The potential for advances in Earth science to reduce natural disaster fatalities in Indonesia has never been greater.
This Special Publication documents some of the recent advances made by Earth scientists that contribute towards a better understanding of geological hazards in Indonesia.