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Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia

By
Jonathan D. Griffin
Jonathan D. Griffin
1
Australia–Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, Menara Thamrin Suite 1505, Jalan M.H. Thamrin Kav. 3, Jakarta 10250, Indonesia
2
Geoscience Australia, Cnr Jerrabomberra Avenue and Hindmarsh Drive, Symonston, ACT 2609, Australia
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Ignatius R. Pranantyo
Ignatius R. Pranantyo
1
Australia–Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, Menara Thamrin Suite 1505, Jalan M.H. Thamrin Kav. 3, Jakarta 10250, Indonesia
3
Present address: Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
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Widjo Kongko
Widjo Kongko
4
Coastal Dynamics Research Centre, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jalan Grafika 2, Sekip, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia
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Afif Haunan
Afif Haunan
5
Geological Agency of Indonesia, Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia
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Rahayu Robiana
Rahayu Robiana
5
Geological Agency of Indonesia, Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia
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Victoria Miller
Victoria Miller
2
Geoscience Australia, Cnr Jerrabomberra Avenue and Hindmarsh Drive, Symonston, ACT 2609, Australia
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Gareth Davies
Gareth Davies
2
Geoscience Australia, Cnr Jerrabomberra Avenue and Hindmarsh Drive, Symonston, ACT 2609, Australia
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Nick Horspool
Nick Horspool
2
Geoscience Australia, Cnr Jerrabomberra Avenue and Hindmarsh Drive, Symonston, ACT 2609, Australia
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Imun Maemunah
Imun Maemunah
5
Geological Agency of Indonesia, Jalan Diponegoro No. 57, Bandung 40122, Indonesia
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Wisnu B. Widjaja
Wisnu B. Widjaja
6
Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency, Jalan Ir. H. Juanda No. 36, Jakarta 10120, Indonesia
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Danny H. Natawidjaja
Danny H. Natawidjaja
7
Indonesian Institute of Science, Kompleks LIPI, Jalan Sangkuriang, Bandung 40135, Indonesia
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Hamzah Latief
Hamzah Latief
8
Bandung Institute of Technology, Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
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Published:
January 01, 2017

Abstract

Tsunami hazard maps are generated for the coastline of the Mentawai Islands, West Sumatra, Indonesia, to support evacuation and disaster response planning. A random heterogeneous slip generator is used to forward model a suite of earthquake rupture scenarios on the Mentawai Segment of the Sunda Subduction Zone. Up to 1000 rupture models that fit constraints provided by coral and geodetic records of coseismic vertical deformation from major earthquakes in 1797, 1833 and 2007 are used to model inundation and to define a maximum inundation zone that envelopes all of these scenarios. Comparison with single-scenario hazard assessments developed by experts and agreed through scientific consensus shows that there is value in modelling a suite of scenarios in order to obtain a more robust and conservative estimate of potential inundated areas. Although both the model presented here and the single-scenario models are based on assumptions about the characteristics of future events using knowledge of past events, by sampling a range of plausible outcomes we gain a more robust estimate of which areas may be inundated during a tsunami within the bounds of the assumptions applied.

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Contents

Geological Society, London, Special Publications

Geohazards in Indonesia: Earth Science for Disaster Risk Reduction

P. R. Cummins
P. R. Cummins
Australian National University, Australia
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I. Meilano
I. Meilano
Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia
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The Geological Society of London
Volume
441
ISBN electronic:
9781862399709
Publication date:
January 01, 2017

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