Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia
Jonathan D. Griffin, Ignatius R. Pranantyo, Widjo Kongko, Afif Haunan, Rahayu Robiana, Victoria Miller, Gareth Davies, Nick Horspool, Imun Maemunah, Wisnu B. Widjaja, Danny H. Natawidjaja, Hamzah Latief, 2017. "Assessing tsunami hazard using heterogeneous slip models in the Mentawai Islands, Indonesia", Geohazards in Indonesia: Earth Science for Disaster Risk Reduction, P. R. Cummins, I. Meilano
Download citation file:
Tsunami hazard maps are generated for the coastline of the Mentawai Islands, West Sumatra, Indonesia, to support evacuation and disaster response planning. A random heterogeneous slip generator is used to forward model a suite of earthquake rupture scenarios on the Mentawai Segment of the Sunda Subduction Zone. Up to 1000 rupture models that fit constraints provided by coral and geodetic records of coseismic vertical deformation from major earthquakes in 1797, 1833 and 2007 are used to model inundation and to define a maximum inundation zone that envelopes all of these scenarios. Comparison with single-scenario hazard assessments developed by experts and agreed through scientific consensus shows that there is value in modelling a suite of scenarios in order to obtain a more robust and conservative estimate of potential inundated areas. Although both the model presented here and the single-scenario models are based on assumptions about the characteristics of future events using knowledge of past events, by sampling a range of plausible outcomes we gain a more robust estimate of which areas may be inundated during a tsunami within the bounds of the assumptions applied.
Figures & Tables
With dense urban populations located in one of the most active tectonic belts in the world, Indonesia is a hotspot for natural hazard risk. During the twentieth century, Indonesia had limited means to keep natural disaster fatalities from rising commensurately with the explosive growth in population. This situation is changing rapidly, however, with major political and economic advances over the past two decades having led to substantial investments in seismic and geodetic infrastructure. The potential for advances in Earth science to reduce natural disaster fatalities in Indonesia has never been greater.
This Special Publication documents some of the recent advances made by Earth scientists that contribute towards a better understanding of geological hazards in Indonesia.