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Book Chapter

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

By
Gareth Davies
Gareth Davies
Community Safety Branch, Geoscience Australia
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Jonathan Griffin
Jonathan Griffin
Community Safety Branch, Geoscience Australia
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Finn Løvholt
Finn Løvholt
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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Sylfest Glimsdal
Sylfest Glimsdal
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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Carl Harbitz
Carl Harbitz
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
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Hong Kie Thio
Hong Kie Thio
AECOM
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Stefano Lorito
Stefano Lorito
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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Roberto Basili
Roberto Basili
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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Jacopo Selva
Jacopo Selva
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
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Eric Geist
Eric Geist
Pacific Coast and Marine Science Centre, United States Geological Survey
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Maria Ana Baptista
Maria Ana Baptista
Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Instituto Politécnico de LisboaInstituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera
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Published:
January 01, 2018

Abstract

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

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Contents

Geological Society, London, Special Publications

Tsunamis: Geology, Hazards and Risks

E. M. Scourse
E. M. Scourse
MCM Environmental Services Ltd, UK
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N. A. Chapman
N. A. Chapman
University of Sheffield, UK
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D. R. Tappin
D. R. Tappin
British Geological Survey, UK
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S. R. Wallis
S. R. Wallis
Nagoya University, JapanUniversity of Tokyo, Japan
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The Geological Society of London
Volume
456
ISBN electronic:
9781786203373
Publication date:
January 01, 2018

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