The challenge of unbiased application of risk analysis towards future profitable exploration
Published:January 01, 2018
Gary P. Citron, P. Jeffrey Brown, James MacKay, Peter Carragher, David Cook, 2018. "The challenge of unbiased application of risk analysis towards future profitable exploration", Petroleum Geology of NW Europe: 50 Years of Learning – Proceedings of the 8th Petroleum Geology Conference, M. Bowman, B. Levell
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We illustrate how the combination of both ‘backward-looking’ and ‘forward-looking’ perspectives serves as a powerful catalyst for profitable exploration. The phrase ‘backward-looking’ refers to a company's discipline to rapidly learn from their past performance. The process utilizes tracking predictive performance to focus on patterns from exploration parameter results relative to forecasts. The learnings are implemented through technology applications and improved forecasts that can lead ultimately to a more predictive (i.e. calibrated) portfolio. This discipline may be viewed as time-consuming, but is a critical part of the role of a professional. Often we observe that a calibrated state of accurately...