John D. Grace, 2006. "A Closer Look at Field Reserve Growth: Science, Engineering, or Just Money?", Reservoir Characterization: Integrating Technology and Business Practices, Roger M. Slatt, Norman c. Rosen, Michael Bowman, John Castagna, Timothy Good, Robert Loucks, Rebecca Latimer, Mark Scheihing, Hu Smith
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The growth in estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of oil and gas fields over the course of their development has been recognized as a significant contributor to hydrocarbon supply, both in the United States and abroad. Data on changes in EUR have been examined for oil and gas fields discovered on the modern shelf of the Gulf of Mexico, in order to empirically determine the possible causes of these changes.
Using a semilog regression model of EUR as a function of years since discovery, from 1975 through 2002, roughly half of fields in the study area grew and the balance either shrank or remained statistically unchanged. Fields that grew were typically large discoveries to start and the volumes by which they grew were log normally distributed. The fields making the largest contributions to aggregate growth typically had at least 20 reservoirs over at least 5,000 feet of charged section, which was deposited in generally prograda-tional environments at sediment accumulation rates between 500 and 2,500 feet per million years.
The principal mechanism of field growth in the study area was through the discovery of new reservoirs. In the fields having the largest growth, these discoveries occurred in cycles based on stratigraphic interval. Within each cycle, the largest reservoirs were discovered early and the size of reservoir discoveries declined exponentially. Up to four major stratigraphically based cycles were observed; generally, but not always, each subsequent cycle added a smaller volume to EUR than those that preceded it.
A secondary source of growth arises through the combined effects of recognizing an increased volume of reservoir rock containing reserves and improvement in recovery factors. The contributions of these mechanisms have been examined through analysis of single-reservoir fields and growth in fields after their last new reservoir discovery.
Field growth is tied to the economic conditions surrounding oil and gas production. From the mid-1970s through mid-1980s, during a period of rising and high prices, large increases in oil and gas reserves were gained through new field discoveries, discovery of new reservoirs within fields and, to a lesser extent, positive reservoir volume revisions and increases in recovery factors. Price collapses in 1986 and again in 1998 are both reflected in reductions in field growth and actually declines in aggregate EUR.
Although a short time series, EUR growth between the beginning of the current price recovery in 1998 and 2002 indicates that supply of new oil and gas in existing fields is becoming more inelastic. This is most probably due to two factors: depletion of the growth potential of old, very large fields; and because of the progressive decline in the sizes of new field discoveries and the high correlation between size and growth, as newer finds have smaller growth potential.