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It is often desirable to describe information derived from the cumulative experience of human experts in a quantitative and probabilistic form. Pertinent examples include assessing the reliability of alternative models or methods of data analysis, estimating the reliability of data in cases where this cannot be measured, and estimating ranges and probable distributions of rock properties and architectures in complex geological settings.

This paper presents a method to design an optimized process of elicitation (interrogation of experts for information) in real time, using all available information elicited previously to help in designing future elicitation trials. The method maximizes expected...

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