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A stochastic bioenergetics model-based approach to translating large river flow and temperature into fish population responses: the pallid sturgeon example

By
Mark L. Wildhaber
Mark L. Wildhaber
1
US Geological Survey, Columbia Environmental Research Center, 4200 New Haven Road, Columbia, MO 65201-8709, USA
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Rima Dey
Rima Dey
2
Department of Statistics, University of Missouri–Columbia, 146 Middlebush Hall, Columbia, MO 65211-6100, USA
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Christopher K. Wikle
Christopher K. Wikle
2
Department of Statistics, University of Missouri–Columbia, 146 Middlebush Hall, Columbia, MO 65211-6100, USA
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Edward H. Moran
Edward H. Moran
1
US Geological Survey, Columbia Environmental Research Center, 4200 New Haven Road, Columbia, MO 65201-8709, USA
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Christopher J. Anderson
Christopher J. Anderson
3
Climate Science Initiative, Iowa State University, 2021 Agronomy Hall, Ames, IA 50011, USA
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Kristie J. Franz
Kristie J. Franz
4
Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, 3023 Agronomy Hall, Ames, IA 50011, USA
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Published:
January 01, 2017

Abstract

In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

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Contents

Geological Society, London, Special Publications

Integrated Environmental Modelling to Solve Real World Problems: Methods, Vision and Challenges

A. T. Riddick
A. T. Riddick
British Geological Survey, UK
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H. Kessler
H. Kessler
British Geological Survey, UK
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J. R. A. Giles
J. R. A. Giles
British Geological Survey, UK
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Geological Society of London
Volume
408
ISBN electronic:
9781862396968
Publication date:
January 01, 2017

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