Lawrence M. Cathles, 2015. "Future Rx: optimism, preparation, acceptance of risk", Ore Deposits in an Evolving Earth, G. R. T. Jenkin, P. A. J. Lusty, I. Mcdonald, M. P. Smith, A. J. Boyce, J. J. Wilkinson
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The world contains the energy and mineral resources needed to sustain 10.5 billion (the level the world population is expected to reach in 2100) at a European standard of living for hundreds of centuries. Using physical and chemical principles to extrapolate from what we know, it is shown that the required resources are present, largely in the world’s oceans. The environmental consequences of shifting to ocean supply will be positive, and a transition from fossil fuels to low carbon energy sources is provided by natural gas. The eventual steps required are big (thousands of nuclear reactors, country-size solar facilities in desert areas, large mining operations) and there are risks, but the risks are small compared with failing to meet the expectations of a growing world. The best course is to aim for success (all at European standard by 2113), accept and manage the risks of development, solving unforeseen problems as they arise, accept the transition to gas, and train and engage the best talents to prepare to tap the ocean’s resources.