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Abstract

The probability of inundation of vulnerable areas by pyroclastic flows and surges generated by lava dome collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, is assessed. The runouts of the flows are simulated by two coupled one-dimensional models, the first representing the valley-following block-and-ash flows (avalanches) and the second the surges orthogonal to them. An ensemble of simulations is developed that honours the observed runout–frequency relationship of the flows and the likelihood of flows originating from a particular part of the dome. The former relationship is based on the observed eruption history from 1995 to 1998 and the second from 1995 to 2003. The avalanche component of the models is parameterized using a random selection from a library of triads of friction coefficients that produce simulation fits to field-observed flow deposits at 1 km runout increments.

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