Structured elicitation of expert judgement for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions
Published:January 01, 2006
W. P. Aspinall, 2006. "Structured elicitation of expert judgement for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions", Statistics in Volcanology, H. M. Mader, S. G. Coles, C. B. Connor, L. J. Connor
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When a potentially dangerous volcano becomes restless, civil authorities invariably turn to scientific specialists to help them anticipate what the volcano will do next, and to provide them with guidance as to the likely threats. Although it is usually possible to discern the earliest signs of unrest, the science of forecasting the course and timing of eruptions remains inexact.
In this paper, recent volcanic crises in the eastern Caribbean are recounted in order to trace the emergence of a need for volcanologists to formalize the way they present scientific advice in such circumstances. The discussion then moves on to the concepts and principles of eliciting expert opinion, and structured elicitation within a mathematical framework, before describing in more detail a specific performance-based procedure for eliciting opinions that relies on proper scoring rules. Ways in which this procedure and its scoring basis have been adapted for use in the recent Montserrat volcanic crisis are discussed, and the purposes for which the formalized procedure has been used during that eruption, in application to hazard and risk management, are described. Finally, a few general observations are offered on the benefits and limitations of using a structured procedure for eliciting scientific opinion in the unique and special circumstances of a volcanic eruption crisis.
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Statistics in Volcanology
Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms.
Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.