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Book Chapter

Nonlinear Science issues in the dynamics of unstable rock slopes: new tools for rock fall risk assessment and early warnings

By
Jiří Zvelebil
Jiří Zvelebil
1
Geo-tools NGO
U Mlejnku 128, 250, 66 Zdiby & Czech Geological Survey, Klárov 3, 118 21 Prague 1, Czech Republic
zvelebilj@seznam.cz
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;
Milan Paluš
Milan Paluš
2
Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Pod vodárenskou věží 2, 182 07 Prague 8, Czech Republic
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;
Dagmar Novotná
Dagmar Novotná
3
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Boční II/1401, 141 31 Prague 4, Czech Republic
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Published:
January 01, 2006

Abstract

Time series of displacement data from unstable rock slopes contain ‘hidden’ information about the dynamics of slope failure. This information cannot be found when using the current linearly causal paradigm based on analytical methods, but is revealed when numerical and graphical methods from the toolbox of the Nonlinear Sciences are applied. The occurrence of fractal patterns, which suggests a qualitative difference between intrinsic slope movement dynamics of time series from the near-to-equilibrium and the far-from-equilibrium dynamical states of slope failure systems, is an example of such a ‘hidden’, diagnostically important indicator. It helps to identify the stage of immediate danger of rock fall occurrence, just in time to launch an efficient early warning. Phase portrait and correlograms of time series proved to be suitable for earlier revelation of transitions from the near-to-equilibrium to the far-from-equilibrium dynamical states, as well as for helping to distinguish between intrinsic slope movement dynamics and climatically driven reversible deformation activity.

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Contents

Geological Society, London, Special Publications

Fractal Analysis for Natural Hazards

G. Cello
G. Cello
University of Camerino, Italy
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B. D. Malamud
B. D. Malamud
King's College London, UK
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Geological Society of London
Volume
261
ISBN electronic:
9781862395091
Publication date:
January 01, 2006

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