A Probabilistic Model of Oil and Gas Discovery
A probabilistic model was constructed of the size of pool discovered in order of discovery within a geologic zone. The model predicts a decline in the average size of discovery as the resource base is depleted. It is built on assumptions about the size distribution of hydrocarbon deposits and the way which this size distribution interacts with exploratory activities. These assumptions govern the behavior of additions to discovered oil (gas) in place as a function of wells drilled in a play. Statistical properties of major Alberta plays were compared with properties of a Monte Carlo simulation of the model. It is possible to interface the model with expert subjective judgment to generate probabilistic forecasts of the size distribution of pools in prospective areas.