A Comparison of the Play Analysis Technique as Applied in Hydrocarbon Resource Assessments of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
Kenneth J. Bird, 1986. "A Comparison of the Play Analysis Technique as Applied in Hydrocarbon Resource Assessments of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge", Oil and Gas Assessment: Methods and Applications, Dudley D. Rice
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A play analysis method of petroleum resource assessment has been developed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and was used successfully in the evaluation of two northern Alaska frontier areas: the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) and the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The assessment procedure entails the input of subjective probabilistic geologic judgments into a computer, which then quickly generates a set of probabilistic resource estimates* The two assessment areas are part of the same North Slope petroleum province and are generally similar except for their size and the absence of seismic and well data for the ANWR. The 17 plays in the NPRA and the 10 in the ANWR were defined stratigraphically, with the exception of one technically defined play in the NPRA.
Our results show that although the assessment area of the NPRA (about 37,000 sq mi) is approximately ten times larger than that of the ANWR coastal plain, the undiscovered in-place oil and gas resources are estimated to be nearly the same in both areas, although pool sizes are estimated to be larger in the. ANWR.
These two assessments were the first ever undertaken by the USGS using the play assessment technique, and our experience suggests that several small modifications in the method would improve its efficiency and enhance its reliability. The advantages of this method over conventional procedures include its capability to furnish a record of probabilistic geologic judgments on large amounts of data and its ease of revision and updating as new information becomes available.
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There is a continual need to update estimates of oil and gas resources remaining to be discovered, and also to refine the methodologies for making these assessments. In 1974, AAPG sponsored a research conference dealing with the above topics, and many of the papers presented there were published in AAPG Studies in Geology 1. As a follow-up to that volume, a U.S. Geological Survey workshop was held in 1983, and many papers from talks presented there, in addition to several other papers, are contained within this volume. The 22 papers have been grouped into two types: those describing methodologies for evaluating resources and those presenting assessments of both conventional and unconventional resources.