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Book Chapter

Comparison of Predrilling Predictions with Postdrilling Outcomes, Using Shell’s Prospect Appraisal System

By
D. Sluijk
D. Sluijk
Shell Internationale Petroleum Maatschappij B. V, The Hague, Netherlands
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J. R. Parker
J. R. Parker
Shell Internationale Petroleum Maatschappij B. V, The Hague, Netherlands
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Published:
January 01, 1986

Abstract

Since 1975 Shell Internationale Petroleum Maatschappij has used a Monte Carlo simulation model for worldwide prospect appraisal. The input parameters to this model describing charge (oil and gas available for trapping and retention), structure, reservoir, and retention (seal characteristics) are given in the form of probability distributions. For the estimation of charge and retention, the model follows a scheme of Bayesian update and uses equations derived from calibration studies, that is, statistical analysis of extensive data sets with a worldwide distribution. Comparison of predrilling predictions with postdrilling results suggests that the underlying calibration procedure is sound. It also demonstrates the importance of assessing geologic uncertainty in a quantitative manner. Geologists appear to have been successful in describing the geologic setting of prospects with respect to hydrocarbon charge and retention (the calibrated parts of the system); however, serious overestimation has occurred with respect to reservoir parameters, trap existence, and related factors (the uncalibrated parts of the system).

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Contents

AAPG Studies in Geology

Oil and Gas Assessment: Methods and Applications

Dudley D. Rice
Dudley D. Rice
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American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Volume
21
ISBN electronic:
9781629811468
Publication date:
January 01, 1986

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