Sergey R. Kotov, 2001. "Near-Term Climate Prediction Using Ice-Core Data from Greenland", Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change, Lee C. Gerhard, William E. Harrison, Bernold M. Hanson
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Records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project II (GISP2) Greenland ice core are considered in terms of dynamical systems theory and nonlinear prediction. Dynamical systems theory allows us to reconstruct some properties of a phenomenon based only on past behavior without any mechanistic assumptions or deterministic models. A short-term prediction of temperature, including a mean estimate and confidence interval, is made for 800 years into the future. The prediction suggests that the present short-time global warming trend will continue for at least 200 years and will be followed by a reversal in the temperature trend.
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Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change
Access A Broad Range of Paleoclimatic Studies. Current debates regarding potential man-induced modification of climate make this volume especially timely. Introductory sections address the major and minor physical controls, or drivers, that affect Earth's climate. Several chapters describe the naturally occurring range of variation of climatic conditions and illustrate past changes in global temperatures. Case studies show how ancient temperature conditions are determined, as well as new techniques that have significant potential as proxies for assessing paleoclimates. Several chapters demonstrate the magnitude and length of duration of numerous temperature variations, which occurred during geologic time periods.