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Book Chapter

Quantitative Assessment of Hydrocarbon Charge Risk in New Ventures Exploration: Are We Fooling Ourselves?

By
Noelle B. Schoellkopf
Noelle B. Schoellkopf
Chevron Energy Technology, Houston, Texas, U.S.A.
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Published:
January 01, 2012

Abstract

Basin modeling software includes tools to statistically vary model input parameters, such as fetch area, depth, source thickness, total organic carbon, hydrogen index, temperature gradient, or heat flow, and consider the impact on fluid phase and volumes. We can rank these parameters, but we should be aware of pitfalls. The underlying geologic assumptions may account for the greatest uncertainty in new basin areas, where data are sparse and models remain poorly calibrated. Modeling tools must be flexible enough to allow multiple working hypotheses within the project time frame.

These multiple hypotheses are best evaluated by an integrated project team that includes the basin modeler. The team members’ shared knowledge of regional basin history, tectonics, stratigraphy, and source rock depositional models can provide an advantage in weighing alternative geologic scenarios and hydrocarbon charge risk.

This chapter provides seven examples of modeling pitfalls based on new ventures exploration studies performed using a combination of flow path and two-dimensional models. Although not representative of all possible pitfalls, these examples illustrate the substantial impact of some pitfalls on model outcome.

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Contents

AAPG Hedberg Series

Basin Modeling: New Horizons in Research and Applications

Kenneth E. Peters
Kenneth E. Peters
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David J. Curry
David J. Curry
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Marek Kacewicz
Marek Kacewicz
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American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Volume
4
ISBN electronic:
9781629810003
Publication date:
January 01, 2012

GeoRef

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