An Analysis of Coastal Recession Models: North Carolina Coast
Orrin H. Pilkey, Thomas W. Davis, 1987. "An Analysis of Coastal Recession Models: North Carolina Coast", Sea-Level Fluctuation and Coastal Evolution, Dag Nummedal, Orrin H. Pilkey, James D. Howard
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Using the North Carolina barrier island shoreline as the test area, a variety of simple geometric recession models has been applied to predict shoreline erosion rates for various sea-level rise scenarios. All sea-level rise scenarios assume no acceleration in rate of rise. South of Cape Lookout, the Bruun Rule, Generalized Bruun Rule and the slope of the migration surface all lead to similar recession predictions. North of Cape Lookout, the slope of the migration surface predicts a much greater recession than Bruun-related models. This suggests the possibility that the islands are in an “out-of-equilibrium position” with respect to present sea level. If this is the case, the possibility exists that very rapid migration of the northern islands will soon occur.
The assumptions used in the present mathematical models depicting shoreline retreat are generally weak. Better models are needed, especially for shorelines where recession is part of the barrier island migration process. The large number of types of islands in a wide variety of geologic and oceanographic settings makes a universally applicable model difficult, if not impossible, to formulate.
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Sea-Level Fluctuation and Coastal Evolution - This Special Publication is the result of a symposium in honor of W. Armstrong Price held at the first SEPM Midyear Meeting at San Jose, California, on August 12, 1984. The factors controlling relative sea-level change along our shores are varied and, at best, imperfectly understood. Yet, the relative rate of change is what controls shoreline erosion, the arrangement of sedimentary facies of the coastal zone, and the character of deformities within the coastal stratigraphic record. Therefore, these papers address sea-level changes, shoreline responses, and the controls on the three-dimensional geometry of the consequent lithosomes; in short, the architecture of the coastal depositional systems.