Probabilistic assessments are used to quantify many hazardous processes in terms of frequency of occurrence of events of different sizes occurring within specified areas. Hazardous processes quantified in this manner include flood levels at locations along river channels, earthquakes of varying magnitudes within the proximity of population centers, eruptive events at active volcanoes, tsunami runup at coastal locations, heavy precipitation events at specific locations, and many others. The terms annual frequency (AF), annual exceedance probability (AEP), exceedance probability (EP), and average return period (ARP, sometimes called the mean recurrence interval) are related. Both AEP and EP represent the probability that...
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